The Future of EVs

Last week Gavin Knapp from SEMA Research broke down the electric vehicle market. It was a really good talk with tons of golden nuggets. Here are the 3 I found most important.

First, the EV market is not a fad nor is it going anywhere. It’s here to stay.

Second, it is not going to take over ICE (internal combustion engine) market tomorrow.

Third, there are no conspiracy theories as to why the sudden surge in EV development by car manufacturers.

Here’s the deal.

The projections from SEMA suggest it will take EVs roughly 10 years before they make up 50% of the new car market. So you have time to adapt your company to this new segment. The manufacturers are looking to auto enthusiasts as their influencers which means performance is going to be king with the development and sale of these new cars. So why are the auto manufacturers dumping ICE innovation for EV tech? Simple, it’s all about the dolla dolla bills y’all!

There are far fewer moving parts in an EV vehicle than an ICE vehicle which means, less money spent on parts. So they will still charge the same amount of $$$ for that new Mach E but make more profits. They are looking at long-term viability and sustainability.

On LinkedIn a while back someone wanted to tell me that the EV market is a communist agenda. I was dumbstruck at that comment. I actually laughed to myself. Are people actually thinking this?!

The question that wasn’t answered

During Gavin Knapp’s session I asked another very important question: “California is going all-in with EVs how is SEMA combating the fear from members in this state who develop products for ICEs and stopping them from leaving this state?”

He never answered this and I am very curious about what they are doing behind the scenes. California is the birthplace of the aftermarket industry. Most of the ICE manufacturers reside in this state. R&D is done here. SEMA’s HQ is here. I am really concerned about this state. I am really concerned for other countries that are prohibiting ICE vehicle sales in the near future. I think this is a stupid idea.

My take

ICE technology keeps getting better. Emissions are getting lower. Alternative fuels are being developed. Nothing beats the sound of an ICE in my opinion. F1 cars are developing amazing tech that is now being applied in our ICE vehicles. I cannot fathom a world where all ICE is abolished. There is no way this happens.

Governments are pointing fingers at a problem that is slowly disappearing. The fingers should be pointed at the main culprits of air pollution: heavy industry plants, second/third world countries who have little to no infrastructure in place to become cleaner. Then look at the energy needed to power these EVs. How much more electricity is going to be needed? How does this get generated? You are goddam rights it will be from fossil fuels! LOL But we are supposed to think that everything will be rainbows and roses with EVs saving the day. Then let’s get into the charging stations. I don’t think people understand that they will not be free. I don’t think people fully understand that charging up with electricity will probably cost you the same amount or maybe more than fuel. Shell and Esso are already buying charging stations across the UK.

It really aggravates me that ICE vehicles are being shamed by some pompous assholes who refuse to look at the big picture. No thought, no vision, no care for our future.

The wrap-up

In any case, as the pandemic has demonstrated, when leaders have no fucking clue what they are doing, they will continue to change things as they learn. The EV market will be no different. So hold tight to your automotive business. Keep doing what you are great at and pay attention to what is happening. You may need to quickly adapt or pivot. Leave all the bullshit conspiracy theories and tinfoil hat wearers behind. Stay great.

The lead is yours.